Political leadership, regime transitions and economic growth
When it comes to kick-starting growth, evidence from Africa and Southeast Asia suggests that authoritarian regimes have an advantage over democratic regimes. But it also shows that authoritarian regimes are also more prone to growth collapse. This is particularly true of autocratic-authoritarian regimes, which face special problems of political succession. Regimes where authoritarianism is more institutionalised and leadership is more collective fare better. Further, growth regimes often come unstuck during a transition from authoritarianism to democracy.
All of this prompts the question of whether or not these patterns are universal. If they are, is there a pathway from authoritarianism to democracy that keeps growth on track?
The transition from kick-starting growth to sustaining it often requires a shift to more inclusive governance. Whether from an autocratic system to a more inclusive or institutionalised authoritarianism, or from authoritarianism to more competitive forms of democracy, the shift poses challenges for political leadership. But we do not understand those challenges well. This study seeks to generate new and systematic knowledge to inform better aid policy and strategic advice for countries undergoing such transitions.