Authoritarianism, Democracy and Development

This paper reviews the evidence on authoritarianism and development from the perspective of a policy-maker providing advice to an ostensibly developmental authoritarian regime. It finds that the cross-national statistical evidence on regime type and development is inconclusive, and argues that varying experiences of development under authoritarianism are better-captured by structured-focused comparisons using 'developmental states' and 'political settlements' frameworks. 

The paper finds that knowing whether a state is authoritarian or democratic does not help us predict whether or not it will be developmental. Authoritarian regimes have been responsible for both astounding development successes and failures, with most regimes lying somewhere in between. The performance of democracies tends to be less extreme, though there has been at least one democratic big developmental success. In general, there is little to choose performance-wise between democracies and authoritarian regimes, although the former appear to be difficult to sustain in low-income conditions.

Contextual characteristics that underpin developmental states include: internal and external threats incentivising development; institutionalized solutions for leadership succession; flexible policies adapted to the country's factor endowments; and at least an incipient enforcement and implementation capability. In democracies there are extra conditions: an elite committed to democracy as the best way of maintaining its privileges, and citizens organized enough to ensure democratic institutions are genuine.

Although 'developmental states' and 'political settlements' frameworks provide a good starting point for thinking about development in particular authoritarian regimes, they do have their blind spots. In particular, they have little to say about whether transitions from less to more developmental forms of authoritarianism are possible or how they take place, or how transitions from authoritarianism to democracy can be managed without derailing development. More research on these issues is needed.

About DLP

The Developmental Leadership Program (DLP) is an international research initiative that explores how leadership, power and political processes drive or block successful development.

DLP focuses on the crucial role of home-grown leaderships and coalitions in forging legitimate political settlements and institutions that promote developmental outcomes, such as sustainable growth, political stability and inclusive social development.

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News

'How Change Happens': Birmingham seminar with Duncan Green

Monday 9th January 2017

What works in achieving progressive change? How do power and systems shape change, and how can you influence them? Join Oxfam's Duncan Green on Thursday 19 January to discuss the themes of his new book 'How Change Happens'. The presentation will be followed by a drinks reception and book signing.

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Islands of integrity: funding award for DLP corruption research

Friday 2nd December 2016

DLP research on how to effectively fight corruption has won funding from the British Academy's Sustainable Development Programme, part of the UK government's Global Challenges Research Fund.

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